There Is No Fool Like A Careless Gambler Who Starts Taking Victory For Granted. – Hunter S. Thompson

The Secret to Gambling Success

There is one thing which make a successful gambler.

Value. 

Without value you could have ten winners on the trot and find you will still be struggling to make money long term. Value is the key. But it's a very difficult concept to understand and especially appreciate in a truthful manner. 

How do you know you have value within any bet? For instance, we just said that even having a string of winners may not indicate value long term. You may be saying well any winner has to be value by the fact it won. This is true. However, we only know this after the fact. We are always wiser in hindsight. But all bets, based on skill, cannot be viewed with such insight before the off. The only way we can try to assess value is by our knowledge and skill. If betting by random luck then we simply cannot win long term. It's possible if you buy that million pound lottery ticket but anything based on skill can be a measure of value. 

If betting on the exchanges, there are higher and lower prices on any given horse. This fluctuates with the money as it ebbs and flows. 

You have to take an opinion in your search for value. You have assess a given race and make your own book. If you feel the horse has a 2/1 chance and it drifts to 9/2 then that may well be a value bet, irrespective of win or loss. It's a strange concept to get your head around because you are looking for winners. However, in truth, the key is finding value. 

After researching horse trainers big and small, I have noticed that very few trainers have a win rate of 50% with short priced favourites. 

That's just 5 winners out of 10. 

So you have to consider that most punters are unlikely to have a 30% strike rate when betting, unless you are an odds-on backer and there is probably little value to be found there. 

This 30% indicates your starting point to finding value. 

In truth, most times I have made good money betting is when a big-priced selection wins. 

But, once again, there may be little value in a horse simply because it's 100/1.

So value is simply knowledge. And implementing your knowledge is a skill within a skill. 

Value is a term bandied around those who gamble. In truth many punters do not care about value. That is mainly because they do not have the knowledge or skill to understand what they are looking for. 

Those who have value in mind usually have a level or knowledge. 

I cannot detail enough the importance of looking for value when betting. It may be as simple as making a book or holding out and waiting for the horse you fancy to drift in the betting to get an extra point or two. However, that is a gamble in itself. If the horse is backed, you have missed the boat and that elusive value is even more remote. 

We live in a competitive world where your skill is witted against an ocean of layers you cannot see. However, their collective pool of knowledge is strong. But that doesn't mean you cannot take advantage of any situation. 

Knowledge is power. 

Value is the key to success.

Post: The Lazy Man's Way to Riches to Gambling

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Thanks, Brasino