Betting on Your Faith

I wonder if you believe in God?

The 17th century French philosopher, scientist, mathematician, and probability theorist argues that if you don't know whether God exists then we should play it safe than risk being sorry. 

Pascal's wager. 

Decision theory. 

I doubt many readers think about religion and God. Although, I'm sure you have said a prayer when times get tough or all hope seems lost. 

I like the word faith. 

Whether it is a belief in a higher power, the laws of nature, spiritualism or yourself. It is something we should respect. 

In truth, faith is a positive in my life. The belief in myself and learning what's needed to make a profit betting on two-year-old horse racing has taken years to understand. These last two or three years have added dramatically to my knowledge. 

Make no mistake knowledge is power. 

Without wisdom you are lacking. If you are lacking you are second best to the average.

To be a winner you don't need to be the best gambler in the world. You can't even see your opponent but they are there. 

Without faith in your own ability you will not be able to achieve any goal. You will be hampered by a lack of knowledge, and even if you have ability a lack of faith will diminish your chance of reaching the highest levels. This is very much a mental barrier. 

Let's take laying horses at big odds to lose. 

It can be an uncomfortable way to bet when contrasted to betting to win. The latter seems more easy to stomach in ways. Although laying horses to lose can be a very good way to make money even if you are waiting for your socks to be blown off. 

I've had a single race where I have made £100+.

On the other side of the coin I've had a single race that cost me more than £700. 

I laid a number horses to lose £2,000+. You don't want to see them flying at the finish. Although you shouldn't be surprised if they do.

I am confident I will win but that doesn't mean I am guaranteed to put money in my pocket. Horses aren't machines. If the favourites run no race - you are at the mercy of some beast being just good enough. 

Don't think it cannot happen - because it can. 

You simply have faith that long term your judgment it right. 

Just like Pascal, you need a little faith. And even if your faith is uncertain it's often best to follow the most logical approach based on probability. 

Are you a believer?

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Thanks, Brasino